The socio-economic development forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan

for 2015 – 2019

  1. A five-year period

 

 

No Item forecast
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 GDP, billion tenge 43 712,2 48 875,5 55 231,4 62 022,0 70 255,2
2 Real change in GDP in % to the previous year 105,0 105,4 106,4 105,7 106,6
3 GDP billion US dollars at the official rate 236,3 264,2 298,5 335,3 379,8
4 GDP per capita, US dollars at the official rate 13 499,5 14 896,4 16 620,9 18 438,8 20 646,1
Economic industries GVA
5 Agriculture, in % to the previous year 112,5 104,0 103,5 104,3 104,3
6 Industry, in% to the previous year 101,4 103,3 104,8 103,5 104,2
7 Mining industry and quarry development in% to the previous year 100,4 101,3 105,0 102,9 104,6
8 Oil production volume and gas condensate million tons 81,8 83,0 88,0 91,0 96,0
9 Manufacturing industry, in% to the previous year 102,0 105,3 104,7 104,3 104,3
10 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, in% to the previous year 107,3 107,1 104,2 102,8 101,2
11 World price of oil (a mixture of Brent), dollars per barrel on average for the year 90,0 90,0 90,0 90,0 90,0
12 Construction, in% to the previous year 102,0 101,8 101,5 101,0 100,0
13 Transportation and warehousing, in% to the previous year 107,0 107,0 107,0 107,0 107,0
14 Communications and information,% change on previous year 107,0 107,0 107,0 107,0 107,0
15 Commerce, in% to the previous year 109,7 108,7 110,4 109,1 111,4
Indicators of monetary policy *
16 Credits STB economy, billion tenge to the end of period 13 864 15 401 17 251 19 263 21 774
17 Deposits of residents, billion tenge to the end of period 12 801 14 325 16 201 18 210 20 643
18 Money supply, billion tenge to the end of period 14 466 16 186 18 302 20 566 23 312
19 Inflation, to the end of period,% 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0
20 The level of monetization of the economy,% 33,1 33,1 33,1 33,2 33,2
21 The official refinancing rate of the National Bank,% (end of period) 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0 6,0-8,0
Indicators of the balance of payments *
22 Exports of goods, million US dollars 78 137,6 79 590,3 84 433,0 87 344,6 91 990,8
23 Imports of goods, million US dollars 50 460,0 51 145,9 52 147,1 53 616,8 56 098,2
24 Trade balance, million US dollars 27 677,7 28 444,4 32 285,9 33 727,7 35 892,6
25 Current account, million US dollars -3 080,5 -2 569,2 863,4 2 349,1 4 011,8
26 Current account balance as% of GDP -1,3 -1,0 0,3 0,7 1,1
Indicators of social sphere
27 The number of economically active population, thousand people 9 158,3 9 213,1 9 269,6 9 333,8 9 391,2
28 The number of employed, thousand people 8 700,4 8 752,4 8 806,1 8 867,1 8 925,2
29 of them hired employees, thousand people 6 430,1 6 487,2 6 545,8 6 611,6 6 733,8
30 self-employed, thousand person 2 270,3 2 265,2 2 260,3 2 255,5 2 191,5
31 The number of unemployed, thousand people 457,9 460,7 463,5 466,7 462,5
32 Unemployment rate,% of economically active population 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0 5,0
33 Total demand for personnel, thousand people 288,9 286,0 283,2 280,3 277,4
34 Minimum wage, tenge 21 364 22 859 24 459 26 171 28 003
35 Average monthly nominal wages, tenge 124 052 132 736 142 028 151 970 162 608
36 Index of real wages,% to previous year 102 102 102 102 102
37 Monthly index, tenge 1 982 2 121 2 269 2 428 2 598
38 Number of pensioners thousand people 1 931,9 1 989,8 1 978,8 1 976,8 1 984,0
39 The size of the basic pension payments, tenge 11 182 11 965 12 803 13 698 14 657
40 Minimum pension, tenge 23 692 25 824 28 148 30 681 33 442
41 A living wage, tenge 21 364 22 859 24 459 26 171 28 003
42 The share of population with substandard income, % 4 4 6 6 6
43 Issue staff with technical and vocational education, people 563 980 567 600 570 512 574 172 577 417
44 Issue staff with higher education, people 120 408 119 333 119 333 119 333 119 333
45 Issue staff with post-graduate education, people 11 000 11 500 12 000 12 500 13 000

* National Bank Forecast of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Key indicatons forecast of the budget for 2015 – 2017

  1. For three year period

billion tenge

No Item estimation 2014 forecast
2015 2016 2017
1 2 3 4 5 6
State budget
1 Receipts 7 404,7 7 588,3 8 426,5 8 904,1
2 % to GDP 18,7 17,4 17,2 16,1
3 Income (excluding transfers) 5 769,8 6 103,4 6 719,6 7 197,2
4 % to GDP 14,6 14,0 13,7 13,0
5 Tax receipts 5 648,6 6 000,7 6 612,4 7 088,0
6 Non-tax receipts 90,4 79,5 82,8 83,7
7 Capital transactions receipts 30,8 23,3 24,4 25,6
8 Incoming transfers 1 630,0 1 480,0 1 702,0 1 702,0
9 Guaranteed transfer from the National Fund 1 480,0 1 480,0 1 702,0 1 702,0
10 Target transfer from the National Fund 150,0
11 Repayment of budget credits 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,8
12 Receipts from sale of state assets 2,1 2,1 2,1 2,1
13 Expenses 8 323,3 8 566,0 9 355,2 9 843,1
14 % to GDP 21,0 19,6 19,1 17,8
15 % to the previous year 116,2 102,9 109,2 105,2
16 Deficit -918,6 -977,7 -928,6 -938,9
17 % to GDP -2,3 -2,2 -1,9 -1,7
18 Non-oil deficit -2 548,6 -2 457,7 2 630,6 2 640,9
19 % to GDP -6,4 -5,6 -5,4 -4,8
Republican budget
Item 2014 estimation Forecast
2015 год 2016 год 2017 год
1 2 3 4 5 6
20 Receipts 6 206,1 6 266,6 6 894,9 7 126,0
21 % to GDP 15,7 14,3 14,1 12,9
22 Income (excluding transfers) 4 361,2 4 509,3 4 899,9 5 240,3
23 % to GDP 11,0 10,3 10,0 9,5
24 Tax receipts 4 273,8 4 433,5 4 821,5 5 161,9
25 Non-Tax receipts 79,9 68,3 70,9 70,9
26 Receipts from capital transactions 7,5 7,5 7,5 7,5
27 Transfers receipts 1 768,6 1 661,7 1 935,7 1 863,0
28 Guaranteed transfer from the National Fund 1 480,0 1 480,0 1 702,0 1 702,0
29 Target transfer from the National Fund 150,0
30 reverse transfer 6,6 13,2 19,8 0,0
31 Budget withdrawals 132,0 168,5 213,9 161,0
32 Repayment of budget credits 75,1 94,5 58,2 22,3
33 Receipts from sale of state assets 1,3 1,2 1,2 0,4
34 Expenses 7 124,8 7 244,3 7 823,5 8 064,9
35 % to GDP 18,0 16,6 16,0 14,6
36 % to the previous year 118,9 101,7 108,0 103,1
37 Deficit -918,6 -977,7 -928,6 -938,9
38 % to GDP -2,3 -2,2 -1,9 -1,7
39 Non-oil deficit -2 548,6 -2 457,7 -2 630,6 -2 640,9
40 % to GDP -6,4 -5,6 -5,4 -4,8

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